Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

AAG Energy Holdings Limited (2686.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.10 - $2.96$2.52
Multi-Stage$3.16 - $3.47$3.31
Blended Fair Value$2.92
Current Price$1.53
Upside90.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.00%0.00%0.060.100.110.080.020.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---43.95%-2.13%40.40%276.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.80%9.02%10.29%6.24%1.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,090.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)323.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)767.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)218.14136.3381.80
Cash Retained (M)767.21767.21767.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-218.14-136.33-81.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)549.08630.88685.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,384.133,384.133,384.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate10.06%10.06%10.06%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.10$2.52$2.96
Upside / Downside36.93%64.97%93.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,090.681,079.771,068.971,058.281,047.701,037.221,068.34
Payout Ratio29.66%41.73%53.79%65.86%77.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)323.46450.54575.05697.02816.49933.50988.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.06%10.06%10.06%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)405.22409.36413.49
Year 2 PV (M)465.18474.72484.36
Year 3 PV (M)507.13522.81538.81
Year 4 PV (M)534.30556.44579.27
Year 5 PV (M)549.42578.03607.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,237.418,666.359,112.98
Equity Value (M)10,698.6611,207.7211,736.74
Shares Outstanding (M)3,384.133,384.133,384.13
Fair Value$3.16$3.31$3.47
Upside / Downside106.63%116.46%126.68%

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