Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.,Ltd (000672.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.08 - $162.51$152.29
Multi-Stage$24.65 - $26.94$25.78
Blended Fair Value$89.03
Current Price$11.02
Upside707.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.36%12.76%0.570.490.800.800.830.400.180.120.110.13
YoY Growth--16.07%-38.02%-0.82%-2.97%106.05%128.99%41.00%8.37%-11.34%-24.90%
Dividend Yield--7.55%6.63%6.79%4.42%4.55%2.46%1.78%1.22%1.25%2.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)751.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)690.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)150.2193.8856.33
Cash Retained (M)60.5560.5560.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-150.21-93.88-56.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)-89.66-33.334.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)915.91915.91915.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.10-0.040.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.10-0.040.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate5.13%6.13%7.13%
Fair Value$51.08$152.29$162.51
Upside / Downside363.50%1,281.95%1,374.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)751.03797.05845.90897.74952.761,011.151,041.48
Payout Ratio91.94%91.55%91.16%90.78%90.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)690.48729.71771.15814.93861.17910.03963.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate5.13%6.13%7.13%
Year 1 PV (M)678.85685.31691.77
Year 2 PV (M)667.41680.16693.04
Year 3 PV (M)656.14675.05694.31
Year 4 PV (M)645.06669.95695.56
Year 5 PV (M)634.15664.89696.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,299.0920,234.6021,206.05
Equity Value (M)22,580.7023,609.9624,677.53
Shares Outstanding (M)915.91915.91915.91
Fair Value$24.65$25.78$26.94
Upside / Downside123.72%133.92%144.49%

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