Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. (NTGY.MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.43 - $26.32$21.63
Multi-Stage$80.38 - $88.88$84.54
Blended Fair Value$53.08
Current Price$27.00
Upside96.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.76%-1.57%1.001.521.561.781.881.981.461.341.591.12
YoY Growth---33.93%-3.07%-12.13%-5.27%-5.21%35.79%9.03%-15.86%42.62%-4.89%
Dividend Yield--3.89%7.47%5.64%6.55%8.99%12.30%5.84%6.90%7.75%6.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,005.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,152.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)852.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)401.00250.63150.38
Cash Retained (M)852.29852.29852.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-401.00-250.63-150.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)451.29601.67701.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)959.03959.03959.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.630.73
LTM Dividend per Share1.201.201.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.630.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.831.93
WACC / Discount Rate4.70%4.70%4.70%
Growth Rate-4.47%-3.47%-2.47%
Fair Value$17.43$21.63$26.32
Upside / Downside-35.44%-19.91%-2.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,005.001,935.431,868.261,803.431,740.851,680.451,730.86
Payout Ratio57.49%63.99%70.50%77.00%83.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,152.711,238.541,317.031,388.591,453.581,512.401,601.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.70%4.70%4.70%
Growth Rate-4.47%-3.47%-2.47%
Year 1 PV (M)1,170.741,183.001,195.25
Year 2 PV (M)1,176.781,201.551,226.57
Year 3 PV (M)1,172.791,210.011,248.01
Year 4 PV (M)1,160.481,209.841,260.76
Year 5 PV (M)1,141.341,202.341,265.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)71,261.4975,070.1979,040.04
Equity Value (M)77,083.6281,076.9385,236.55
Shares Outstanding (M)959.03959.03959.03
Fair Value$80.38$84.54$88.88
Upside / Downside197.69%213.11%229.18%

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