Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Activation Group Holdings Limited (9919.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.51 - $14.31$8.37
Multi-Stage$6.03 - $6.60$6.31
Blended Fair Value$7.34
Current Price$0.76
Upside869.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.94%0.00%0.110.110.120.070.000.050.070.000.010.00
YoY Growth--4.04%-9.98%82.01%0.00%-100.00%-24.94%20,865.89%-96.40%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--14.04%11.37%14.30%5.70%0.00%3.91%5.29%0.03%0.69%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)181.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)96.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.2422.6513.59
Cash Retained (M)96.1496.1496.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.24-22.65-13.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)59.9073.4982.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)741.51741.51741.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate3.08%4.08%5.08%
Fair Value$5.51$8.37$14.31
Upside / Downside627.12%1,004.89%1,789.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)181.18188.57196.26204.26212.59221.26227.90
Payout Ratio46.94%55.55%64.16%72.78%81.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85.04104.75125.93148.65173.02199.14210.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate3.08%4.08%5.08%
Year 1 PV (M)97.2098.1499.08
Year 2 PV (M)108.42110.53112.66
Year 3 PV (M)118.75122.24125.80
Year 4 PV (M)128.25133.30138.50
Year 5 PV (M)136.96143.73150.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,878.834,070.674,270.02
Equity Value (M)4,468.404,678.614,896.83
Shares Outstanding (M)741.51741.51741.51
Fair Value$6.03$6.31$6.60
Upside / Downside695.91%733.35%772.22%

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