Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Japan Logistics Fund, Inc. (8967.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66,610.72 - $100,497.89$82,602.07
Multi-Stage$140,888.40 - $154,578.61$147,601.16
Blended Fair Value$115,101.62
Current Price$93,800.00
Upside22.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%3,520.383,494.143,422.313,145.684,759.210.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.75%2.10%8.79%-33.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.92%4.09%3.42%2.93%4.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,684.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19,738.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,945.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,336.902,710.561,626.34
Cash Retained (M)1,945.661,945.661,945.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,336.90-2,710.56-1,626.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,391.24-764.90319.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.782.782.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-859.60-274.97114.79
LTM Dividend per Share7,095.717,095.717,095.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share-859.60-274.97114.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend6,236.106,820.747,210.50
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$66,610.72$82,602.07$100,497.89
Upside / Downside-28.99%-11.94%7.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,684.4921,467.6521,252.9721,040.4420,830.0420,621.7421,240.39
Payout Ratio91.03%90.82%90.62%90.41%90.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19,738.8419,497.3319,258.6919,022.8718,789.8418,559.5619,647.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)18,008.3418,192.0918,375.85
Year 2 PV (M)16,429.4616,766.4717,106.90
Year 3 PV (M)14,988.9415,452.4815,925.49
Year 4 PV (M)13,674.6514,241.4014,825.59
Year 5 PV (M)12,475.5413,125.1713,801.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)316,346.45332,819.34349,971.42
Equity Value (M)391,923.37410,596.96430,006.83
Shares Outstanding (M)2.782.782.78
Fair Value$140,888.40$147,601.16$154,578.61
Upside / Downside50.20%57.36%64.80%

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