Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (600638.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.73 - $4.53$3.53
Multi-Stage$9.38 - $10.33$9.84
Blended Fair Value$6.69
Current Price$6.08
Upside9.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.29%-5.38%0.310.330.420.460.300.670.540.450.370.37
YoY Growth---5.55%-21.84%-8.48%54.86%-55.79%23.45%20.11%21.86%-0.22%-31.06%
Dividend Yield--6.18%7.30%7.33%7.19%5.22%12.69%5.17%3.71%2.22%3.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)162.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.5420.3412.20
Cash Retained (M)14.1214.1214.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.54-20.34-12.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)-18.42-6.221.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)674.21674.21674.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate4.93%4.93%4.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.73$3.53$4.53
Upside / Downside-55.08%-41.99%-25.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)162.69161.07159.46157.86156.28154.72159.36
Payout Ratio91.32%91.06%90.79%90.53%90.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.57146.66144.77142.91141.07139.25147.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.93%4.93%4.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)138.36139.78141.19
Year 2 PV (M)128.86131.50134.17
Year 3 PV (M)120.00123.71127.50
Year 4 PV (M)111.75116.38121.16
Year 5 PV (M)104.07109.49115.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,718.666,016.456,326.51
Equity Value (M)6,321.706,637.306,965.65
Shares Outstanding (M)674.21674.21674.21
Fair Value$9.38$9.84$10.33
Upside / Downside54.22%61.92%69.93%

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