Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tsuruya Co., Ltd. (5386.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$102.61 - $139.42$121.37
Multi-Stage$196.88 - $216.25$206.37
Blended Fair Value$163.87
Current Price$416.00
Upside-60.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS-5.53%0.00%11.525.107.3912.046.8615.310.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--125.80%-30.95%-38.67%75.47%-55.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.92%1.36%1.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.3119.5711.74
Cash Retained (M)66.4166.4166.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.31-19.57-11.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.1046.8454.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.527.527.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.676.237.27
LTM Dividend per Share11.9811.9811.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.676.237.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.6518.2119.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate-5.87%-4.87%-3.87%
Fair Value$102.61$121.37$139.42
Upside / Downside-75.33%-70.82%-66.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.56148.94141.69134.80128.23121.99125.65
Payout Ratio57.58%64.06%70.55%77.03%83.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90.1595.4299.96103.84107.10109.79116.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate-5.87%-4.87%-3.87%
Year 1 PV (M)86.3087.2288.13
Year 2 PV (M)81.7783.5185.28
Year 3 PV (M)76.8279.2981.82
Year 4 PV (M)71.6674.7577.95
Year 5 PV (M)66.4470.0573.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,098.171,157.761,219.90
Equity Value (M)1,481.161,552.581,626.89
Shares Outstanding (M)7.527.527.52
Fair Value$196.88$206.37$216.25
Upside / Downside-52.67%-50.39%-48.02%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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