Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Simple Mart Retail Co., Ltd. (2945.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.57 - $26.57$21.81
Multi-Stage$36.37 - $39.98$38.14
Blended Fair Value$29.98
Current Price$39.75
Upside-24.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-11.57%0.00%1.190.732.582.410.562.210.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--64.38%-71.85%6.89%332.01%-74.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.12%1.61%6.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)81.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.6917.3110.39
Cash Retained (M)57.4757.4757.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.69-17.31-10.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.7840.1647.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)67.8467.8467.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.590.69
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.590.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.631.791.89
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$17.57$21.81$26.57
Upside / Downside-55.80%-45.13%-33.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.47137.09135.72134.36133.01131.68135.64
Payout Ratio58.50%64.80%71.10%77.40%83.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)81.0088.8396.49103.99111.33118.52125.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)82.1082.9383.77
Year 2 PV (M)82.4284.1185.82
Year 3 PV (M)82.0984.6387.22
Year 4 PV (M)81.2384.6088.07
Year 5 PV (M)79.9284.0888.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,059.972,167.232,278.92
Equity Value (M)2,467.722,587.592,712.22
Shares Outstanding (M)67.8467.8467.84
Fair Value$36.37$38.14$39.98
Upside / Downside-8.49%-4.05%0.57%

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