Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Emmi AG (0QM5.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$860.05 - $1,401.24$1,102.23
Multi-Stage$982.47 - $1,073.82$1,027.30
Blended Fair Value$1,064.76
Current Price$793.00
Upside34.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.49%15.09%15.5014.5014.0013.0012.009.0010.005.904.903.80
YoY Growth--6.90%3.57%7.69%8.33%33.33%-10.00%69.49%20.41%28.95%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.11%1.59%1.79%1.21%1.32%1.07%1.47%0.84%0.79%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)405.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)171.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)234.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.2050.7530.45
Cash Retained (M)234.80234.80234.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.20-50.75-30.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)153.60184.05204.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.355.355.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share28.7134.4038.20
LTM Dividend per Share32.0032.0032.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share28.7134.4038.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend60.7166.4170.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate2.47%3.47%4.47%
Fair Value$860.05$1,102.23$1,401.24
Upside / Downside8.46%38.99%76.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)405.99420.10434.69449.80465.43481.60496.05
Payout Ratio42.17%51.73%61.30%70.87%80.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)171.19217.33266.47318.76374.36433.44458.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate2.47%3.47%4.47%
Year 1 PV (M)196.18198.10200.01
Year 2 PV (M)217.13221.39225.69
Year 3 PV (M)234.47241.40248.47
Year 4 PV (M)248.57258.42268.55
Year 5 PV (M)259.80272.72286.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,099.544,303.514,515.52
Equity Value (M)5,255.705,495.545,744.40
Shares Outstanding (M)5.355.355.35
Fair Value$982.47$1,027.30$1,073.82
Upside / Downside23.89%29.55%35.41%

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