Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nick Scali Limited (NCK.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.11 - $83.22$51.79
Multi-Stage$26.59 - $28.95$27.75
Blended Fair Value$39.77
Current Price$18.21
Upside118.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.09%16.84%0.640.680.730.580.610.440.470.350.300.16
YoY Growth---5.14%-6.67%25.00%-4.00%38.89%-8.16%36.11%16.13%82.35%21.43%
Dividend Yield--3.53%5.06%7.98%7.04%5.17%6.73%7.75%5.18%4.93%3.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.6617.2910.37
Cash Retained (M)27.8027.8027.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.66-17.29-10.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.1510.5217.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.5983.5983.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.130.21
LTM Dividend per Share1.321.321.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.130.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.321.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.11$51.79$83.22
Upside / Downside92.81%184.40%356.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.29147.28156.85167.04177.90189.47195.15
Payout Ratio79.89%81.92%83.94%85.96%87.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.49120.64131.65143.59156.52170.52180.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)109.16110.20111.23
Year 2 PV (M)107.79109.85111.92
Year 3 PV (M)106.38109.43112.55
Year 4 PV (M)104.93108.96113.11
Year 5 PV (M)103.44108.43113.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,690.641,772.291,857.08
Equity Value (M)2,222.342,319.172,419.51
Shares Outstanding (M)83.5983.5983.59
Fair Value$26.59$27.75$28.95
Upside / Downside46.00%52.36%58.95%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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