Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Matador Resources Company (MTDR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$172.87 - $591.08$283.91
Multi-Stage$110.46 - $120.78$115.53
Blended Fair Value$199.72
Current Price$44.93
Upside344.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.840.620.280.120.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--35.89%118.96%141.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.64%0.92%0.59%0.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)781.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)633.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)156.2497.6558.59
Cash Retained (M)633.12633.12633.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-156.24-97.65-58.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)476.88535.47574.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.99124.99124.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.824.284.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.824.284.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.005.475.78
WACC / Discount Rate8.55%8.55%8.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$172.87$283.91$591.08
Upside / Downside284.76%531.90%1,215.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)781.21831.99886.06943.661,005.001,070.321,102.43
Payout Ratio18.96%33.17%47.37%61.58%75.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.09275.93419.76581.13761.70963.291,019.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.55%8.55%8.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)251.81254.19256.58
Year 2 PV (M)349.57356.23362.95
Year 3 PV (M)441.65454.32467.24
Year 4 PV (M)528.27548.58569.48
Year 5 PV (M)609.67639.11669.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,625.7512,187.2812,770.30
Equity Value (M)13,806.7114,439.7215,096.24
Shares Outstanding (M)124.99124.99124.99
Fair Value$110.46$115.53$120.78
Upside / Downside145.86%157.13%168.82%

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