Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Kalbe Farma Tbk. (KLBF.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,072.56 - $1,904.45$1,423.79
Multi-Stage$1,023.62 - $1,116.95$1,069.44
Blended Fair Value$1,246.62
Current Price$1,130.00
Upside10.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.31%6.05%31.4538.5535.7828.7926.7326.7325.7022.6219.5319.53
YoY Growth---18.42%7.75%24.30%7.69%0.00%4.00%13.64%15.79%0.00%11.76%
Dividend Yield--2.77%2.63%1.70%1.79%1.70%2.23%1.72%1.51%1.27%1.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,493,602.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,635,802.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,857,800.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)698,720.57436,700.36262,020.21
Cash Retained (M)1,857,800.361,857,800.361,857,800.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-698,720.57-436,700.36-262,020.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,159,079.781,421,100.001,595,780.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45,591.8445,591.8445,591.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.4231.1735.00
LTM Dividend per Share35.8835.8835.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.4231.1735.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend61.3067.0570.88
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Fair Value$1,072.56$1,423.79$1,904.45
Upside / Downside-5.08%26.00%68.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,493,602.863,670,055.383,855,420.054,050,146.994,254,709.064,469,603.024,603,691.11
Payout Ratio46.82%55.46%64.09%72.73%81.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,635,802.502,035,347.972,471,080.472,945,636.183,461,825.274,022,642.724,258,414.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Year 1 PV (M)1,832,739.701,850,353.601,867,967.51
Year 2 PV (M)2,003,600.472,042,297.522,081,364.71
Year 3 PV (M)2,150,628.812,213,233.772,277,042.05
Year 4 PV (M)2,275,902.302,364,663.722,455,996.47
Year 5 PV (M)2,381,343.532,497,996.162,619,176.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,024,496.4637,789,194.4939,622,381.25
Equity Value (M)46,668,711.2748,757,739.2650,923,928.11
Shares Outstanding (M)45,591.8445,591.8445,591.84
Fair Value$1,023.62$1,069.44$1,116.95
Upside / Downside-9.41%-5.36%-1.15%

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