Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.20 - $44.40$31.71
Multi-Stage$18.24 - $19.88$19.05
Blended Fair Value$25.38
Current Price$39.22
Upside-35.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.34%-4.03%0.600.600.600.230.050.200.150.000.000.42
YoY Growth--0.23%-0.35%161.63%353.42%-74.91%33.49%10,800.00%-66.67%-99.01%-53.64%
Dividend Yield--1.58%1.26%1.47%0.46%0.15%2.99%1.15%0.01%0.03%4.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,066.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)865.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,201.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)413.20258.25154.95
Cash Retained (M)1,201.001,201.001,201.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-413.20-258.25-154.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)787.80942.751,046.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,444.001,444.001,444.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.650.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.650.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.141.251.32
WACC / Discount Rate10.70%10.70%10.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.20$31.71$44.40
Upside / Downside-40.84%-19.14%13.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,066.002,200.292,343.312,495.622,657.842,830.602,915.52
Payout Ratio41.87%51.49%61.12%70.75%80.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)865.001,133.031,432.251,765.592,136.202,547.542,696.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.70%10.70%10.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,013.871,023.481,033.09
Year 2 PV (M)1,146.831,168.671,190.72
Year 3 PV (M)1,265.051,301.361,338.37
Year 4 PV (M)1,369.621,422.291,476.47
Year 5 PV (M)1,461.561,532.151,605.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,083.1421,053.1722,060.32
Equity Value (M)26,340.0727,501.1228,704.41
Shares Outstanding (M)1,444.001,444.001,444.00
Fair Value$18.24$19.05$19.88
Upside / Downside-53.49%-51.44%-49.32%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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