Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tiangong International Company Limited (0826.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.57 - $4.05$3.25
Multi-Stage$5.35 - $5.89$5.62
Blended Fair Value$4.43
Current Price$1.83
Upside142.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.61%5.51%0.060.040.060.080.050.030.040.010.010.04
YoY Growth--63.43%-39.27%-20.02%54.26%47.87%-9.48%352.70%48.40%-84.53%0.36%
Dividend Yield--3.38%1.95%2.37%1.94%1.68%1.14%2.25%0.79%0.61%6.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)713.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)264.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)449.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)142.7789.2353.54
Cash Retained (M)449.21449.21449.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-142.77-89.23-53.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)306.44359.97395.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,746.592,746.592,746.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-1.37%-0.37%0.63%
Fair Value$2.57$3.25$4.05
Upside / Downside40.62%77.65%121.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)713.85711.24708.65706.06703.48700.91721.94
Payout Ratio37.07%47.66%58.24%68.83%79.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)264.64338.97412.74485.97558.67630.82667.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-1.37%-0.37%0.63%
Year 1 PV (M)314.77317.96321.16
Year 2 PV (M)355.93363.18370.51
Year 3 PV (M)389.17401.13413.33
Year 4 PV (M)415.45432.56450.19
Year 5 PV (M)435.63458.17481.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,793.2913,455.0914,144.00
Equity Value (M)14,704.2515,428.1016,180.81
Shares Outstanding (M)2,746.592,746.592,746.59
Fair Value$5.35$5.62$5.89
Upside / Downside192.55%206.95%221.93%

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