Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Rio Tinto Group (RIO1.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$155.37 - $259.68$201.24
Multi-Stage$184.84 - $201.85$193.19
Blended Fair Value$197.22
Current Price$58.53
Upside236.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.43%6.59%4.303.967.189.403.756.323.282.601.672.49
YoY Growth--8.58%-44.83%-23.64%150.44%-40.66%92.94%26.02%55.96%-33.15%9.87%
Dividend Yield--7.32%5.29%10.12%13.88%4.94%10.67%6.91%4.86%4.26%8.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,021.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,566.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,455.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,204.202,627.631,576.58
Cash Retained (M)7,455.007,455.007,455.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,204.20-2,627.63-1,576.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,250.804,827.385,878.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.061,634.061,634.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.992.953.60
LTM Dividend per Share8.308.308.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.992.953.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.2911.2611.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate2.45%3.45%4.45%
Fair Value$155.37$201.24$259.68
Upside / Downside165.45%243.83%343.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,021.0021,745.8322,495.6423,271.3224,073.7324,903.8225,650.94
Payout Ratio64.54%69.63%74.72%79.81%84.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,566.0015,141.2616,809.0318,573.8120,440.3122,413.4423,727.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate2.45%3.45%4.45%
Year 1 PV (M)13,727.2813,861.2813,995.27
Year 2 PV (M)13,816.1714,087.2114,360.88
Year 3 PV (M)13,841.0314,250.3114,667.58
Year 4 PV (M)13,809.4814,356.6114,919.83
Year 5 PV (M)13,728.4314,411.6615,121.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)233,115.91244,717.47256,776.40
Equity Value (M)302,038.31315,684.53329,841.77
Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.061,634.061,634.06
Fair Value$184.84$193.19$201.85
Upside / Downside215.80%230.07%244.87%

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