Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (600519.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,369.78 - $2,946.82$1,954.44
Multi-Stage$1,066.40 - $1,160.91$1,112.81
Blended Fair Value$1,533.63
Current Price$1,443.99
Upside6.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.37%31.23%54.8325.9443.6419.3217.0514.5611.016.806.234.02
YoY Growth--111.33%-40.55%125.91%13.32%17.10%32.18%62.06%9.05%55.09%11.00%
Dividend Yield--3.51%1.51%2.40%1.12%0.85%1.31%1.28%0.99%1.61%1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)90,027.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64,671.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)25,355.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18,005.4711,253.426,752.05
Cash Retained (M)25,355.6625,355.6625,355.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-18,005.47-11,253.42-6,752.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,350.1914,102.2518,603.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,254.611,254.611,254.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.8611.2414.83
LTM Dividend per Share51.5551.5551.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.8611.2414.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend57.4162.7966.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,369.78$1,954.44$2,946.82
Upside / Downside-5.14%35.35%104.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)90,027.3495,879.12102,111.26108,748.49115,817.14123,345.26127,045.62
Payout Ratio71.84%75.47%79.10%82.73%86.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64,671.6872,358.5180,771.3989,972.24100,027.93111,010.73117,517.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)65,209.4165,827.5166,445.61
Year 2 PV (M)65,599.2566,848.7368,110.00
Year 3 PV (M)65,852.2367,742.6169,668.83
Year 4 PV (M)65,978.7268,516.0871,125.93
Year 5 PV (M)65,988.5069,175.7772,485.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,009,279.971,058,028.571,108,642.89
Equity Value (M)1,337,908.091,396,139.281,456,478.28
Shares Outstanding (M)1,254.611,254.611,254.61
Fair Value$1,066.40$1,112.81$1,160.91
Upside / Downside-26.15%-22.93%-19.60%

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