Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Huishang Bank Corporation Limited (3698.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.59 - $79.02$54.09
Multi-Stage$48.15 - $52.82$50.44
Blended Fair Value$52.27
Current Price$3.52
Upside1,384.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.15%4.32%0.240.500.460.420.520.380.360.180.300.16
YoY Growth---52.58%7.39%10.89%-19.18%35.61%5.26%99.41%-39.56%85.34%4.90%
Dividend Yield--10.14%23.07%21.09%19.56%24.09%14.91%12.12%5.59%9.33%6.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30,855.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,886.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)21,968.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,171.023,856.882,314.13
Cash Retained (M)21,968.8521,968.8521,968.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,171.02-3,856.88-2,314.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,797.8318,111.9619,654.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,889.8013,889.8013,889.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.301.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.301.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.781.942.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate2.32%3.32%4.32%
Fair Value$38.59$54.09$79.02
Upside / Downside996.18%1,436.75%2,144.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30,855.0831,880.0432,939.0534,033.2435,163.7736,331.8637,421.82
Payout Ratio28.80%41.04%53.28%65.52%77.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,886.2313,083.5417,549.9022,298.5627,343.3432,698.6834,615.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate2.32%3.32%4.32%
Year 1 PV (M)12,105.3612,223.6712,341.97
Year 2 PV (M)15,023.7915,318.8815,616.85
Year 3 PV (M)17,661.7618,184.6718,717.80
Year 4 PV (M)20,038.3120,833.2221,651.54
Year 5 PV (M)22,171.3523,276.1424,424.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)581,751.95610,740.61640,873.52
Equity Value (M)668,752.52700,577.19733,626.22
Shares Outstanding (M)13,889.8013,889.8013,889.80
Fair Value$48.15$50.44$52.82
Upside / Downside1,267.81%1,332.90%1,400.50%

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