Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Thai Life Insurance Public Company Limited (TLI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.73 - $11.21$9.42
Multi-Stage$13.01 - $14.27$13.63
Blended Fair Value$11.52
Current Price$10.00
Upside15.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS32.35%0.00%0.500.300.230.200.120.120.120.120.090.00
YoY Growth--66.65%29.62%17.37%60.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%33.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.38%3.31%1.82%1.23%0.77%0.77%0.77%0.77%0.58%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,107.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,725.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,382.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,421.571,513.48908.09
Cash Retained (M)6,382.496,382.496,382.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,421.57-1,513.48-908.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,960.924,869.005,474.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,464.1611,464.1611,464.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.420.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.420.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.98
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate-1.87%-0.87%0.13%
Fair Value$7.73$9.42$11.21
Upside / Downside-22.71%-5.83%12.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,107.8512,002.3611,897.7911,794.1411,691.3811,589.5211,937.21
Payout Ratio47.29%55.83%64.37%72.91%81.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,725.366,700.817,658.838,599.649,523.4810,430.5711,041.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate-1.87%-0.87%0.13%
Year 1 PV (M)6,093.556,155.656,217.74
Year 2 PV (M)6,333.576,463.316,594.37
Year 3 PV (M)6,467.106,666.836,870.64
Year 4 PV (M)6,512.806,782.377,060.21
Year 5 PV (M)6,486.696,824.027,175.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)117,256.08123,353.70129,702.39
Equity Value (M)149,149.78156,245.87163,620.59
Shares Outstanding (M)11,464.1611,464.1611,464.16
Fair Value$13.01$13.63$14.27
Upside / Downside30.10%36.29%42.72%

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