DDM Analysis: MOTV3.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$22.33 - $42.59	$30.48
Multi-Stage	$28.38 - $31.12	$29.73
Blended Fair Value	$30.10
Current Price	$14.88
Upside	102.32%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-13.44%	-6.07%	0.37	0.19	0.38	0.14	0.48	0.76	0.60	0.63	0.62	0.52
YoY Growth	-	-	95.78%	-50.28%	179.48%	-71.71%	-36.86%	27.13%	-4.79%	1.80%	19.02%	-24.96%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.22%	1.45%	3.16%	1.09%	4.13%	7.49%	6.20%	6.64%	4.54%	5.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,891.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	972.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,919.50

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	578.34	361.46	216.88
Cash Retained (M)	1,919.50	1,919.50	1,919.50
(-) Cash Required (M)	-578.34	-361.46	-216.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,341.16	1,558.04	1,702.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,020.00	2,020.00	2,020.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.66	0.77	0.84
LTM Dividend per Share	0.48	0.48	0.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.66	0.77	0.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.15	1.25	1.32
WACC / Discount Rate	7.37%	7.37%	7.37%
Growth Rate	2.14%	3.14%	4.14%
Fair Value	$22.33	$30.48	$42.59
Upside / Downside	50.08%	104.87%	186.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,891.68	2,982.36	3,075.88	3,172.33	3,271.81	3,374.41	3,475.64
Payout Ratio	33.62%	44.90%	56.17%	67.45%	78.72%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	972.18	1,338.96	1,727.78	2,139.68	2,575.70	3,036.97	3,214.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.37%	7.37%	7.37%
Growth Rate	2.14%	3.14%	4.14%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,234.92	1,247.01	1,259.10
Year 2 PV (M)	1,469.71	1,498.63	1,527.83
Year 3 PV (M)	1,678.65	1,728.44	1,779.21
Year 4 PV (M)	1,863.71	1,937.78	2,014.04
Year 5 PV (M)	2,026.73	2,127.91	2,233.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)	49,055.91	51,504.90	54,050.74
Equity Value (M)	57,329.63	60,044.67	62,864.01
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,020.00	2,020.00	2,020.00
Fair Value	$28.38	$29.73	$31.12
Upside / Downside	90.73%	99.77%	109.15%

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Motiva S.A. (MOTV3.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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