Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Emdeki Utama Tbk (MDKI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$83.79 - $118.70$101.02
Multi-Stage$133.97 - $146.60$140.17
Blended Fair Value$120.60
Current Price$185.00
Upside-34.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%12.0010.0010.0012.009.0012.0010.3614.620.000.00
YoY Growth--20.00%0.00%-16.67%33.34%-25.00%15.78%-29.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.00%4.95%5.29%6.00%4.17%6.98%4.05%5.95%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32,363.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20,241.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,122.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,472.604,045.382,427.23
Cash Retained (M)12,122.0012,122.0012,122.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,472.60-4,045.38-2,427.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,649.408,076.639,694.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,530.152,530.152,530.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.233.193.83
LTM Dividend per Share8.008.008.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.233.193.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.2311.1911.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$83.79$101.02$118.70
Upside / Downside-54.71%-45.39%-35.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32,363.0032,039.3731,718.9831,401.7931,087.7730,776.8931,700.20
Payout Ratio62.54%68.03%73.53%79.02%84.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20,241.0021,797.9623,321.7524,812.8926,271.8827,699.2029,322.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)19,621.9119,822.1420,022.36
Year 2 PV (M)18,897.8419,285.4819,677.06
Year 3 PV (M)18,098.9818,658.7019,229.85
Year 4 PV (M)17,250.1717,965.1018,702.04
Year 5 PV (M)16,371.7417,224.2618,111.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)248,736.05261,688.31275,174.61
Equity Value (M)338,976.69354,644.00370,917.83
Shares Outstanding (M)2,530.152,530.152,530.15
Fair Value$133.97$140.17$146.60
Upside / Downside-27.58%-24.23%-20.76%

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