Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hawkins, Inc. (HWKN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$108.57 - $360.54$176.97
Multi-Stage$69.77 - $76.28$72.97
Blended Fair Value$124.97
Current Price$176.91
Upside-29.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.30%6.41%0.700.640.580.530.480.470.570.440.420.40
YoY Growth--10.55%10.31%8.55%10.24%2.08%-17.95%30.72%5.51%5.16%5.06%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.72%1.19%1.47%1.50%2.18%2.64%2.39%1.74%1.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)83.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.6210.396.23
Cash Retained (M)67.8867.8867.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.62-10.39-6.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.2657.4961.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.8420.8420.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.462.762.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.462.762.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.193.493.69
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$108.57$176.97$360.54
Upside / Downside-38.63%0.03%103.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)83.1288.5294.28100.41106.93113.88117.30
Payout Ratio18.33%32.66%47.00%61.33%75.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.2428.9244.3161.5880.91102.49108.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)26.3826.6326.88
Year 2 PV (M)36.8737.5738.28
Year 3 PV (M)46.7448.0849.45
Year 4 PV (M)56.0258.1760.39
Year 5 PV (M)64.7267.8571.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,223.591,282.681,344.05
Equity Value (M)1,454.311,520.981,590.13
Shares Outstanding (M)20.8420.8420.84
Fair Value$69.77$72.97$76.28
Upside / Downside-60.56%-58.75%-56.88%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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