Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hera S.p.A. (HER.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.55 - $10.50$7.55
Multi-Stage$4.44 - $4.84$4.64
Blended Fair Value$6.09
Current Price$3.83
Upside59.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.64%6.12%0.170.160.150.120.100.100.100.100.100.10
YoY Growth--4.06%8.93%25.14%19.08%-1.87%-0.86%7.45%-3.09%0.28%5.54%
Dividend Yield--4.28%5.11%5.81%3.60%3.10%3.16%3.21%3.26%3.83%3.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)506.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)261.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)245.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)101.2663.2937.97
Cash Retained (M)245.00245.00245.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-101.26-63.29-37.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)143.74181.71207.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,453.891,453.891,453.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate10.80%10.80%10.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.55$7.55$10.50
Upside / Downside44.81%97.08%174.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)506.30539.21574.26611.58651.34693.67714.49
Payout Ratio51.61%59.29%66.97%74.64%82.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)261.30319.69384.56456.51536.19624.31660.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.80%10.80%10.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)285.82288.53291.24
Year 2 PV (M)307.39313.25319.16
Year 3 PV (M)326.25335.61345.16
Year 4 PV (M)342.60355.77369.33
Year 5 PV (M)356.64373.86391.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,840.725,074.535,317.29
Equity Value (M)6,459.426,741.567,033.91
Shares Outstanding (M)1,453.891,453.891,453.89
Fair Value$4.44$4.64$4.84
Upside / Downside16.00%21.07%26.32%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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