DDM Analysis: HAYN

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$25.37 - $38.22	$31.44
Multi-Stage	$35.94 - $39.40	$37.64
Blended Fair Value	$34.54
Current Price	$58.65
Upside	-41.11%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	0.32%	0.31%	0.87	0.86	0.87	0.86	0.86	0.86	0.86	0.86	0.85	0.85
YoY Growth	-	-	1.08%	-0.92%	1.06%	0.43%	-0.02%	0.04%	0.19%	0.33%	0.42%	0.53%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.53%	1.89%	2.16%	3.61%	2.40%	3.25%	2.68%	1.99%	2.33%	1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	37.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	11.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)	26.19

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7.50	4.69	2.81
Cash Retained (M)	26.19	26.19	26.19
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7.50	-4.69	-2.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)	18.69	21.50	23.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	12.83	12.83	12.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.46	1.68	1.82
LTM Dividend per Share	0.88	0.88	0.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.46	1.68	1.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.34	2.56	2.70
WACC / Discount Rate	9.24%	9.24%	9.24%
Growth Rate	0.03%	1.03%	2.03%
Fair Value	$25.37	$31.44	$38.22
Upside / Downside	-56.74%	-46.39%	-34.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	37.51	37.89	38.28	38.67	39.07	39.47	40.65
Payout Ratio	30.16%	42.13%	54.10%	66.07%	78.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	11.31	15.96	20.71	25.55	30.49	35.52	37.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.24%	9.24%	9.24%
Growth Rate	0.03%	1.03%	2.03%
Year 1 PV (M)	14.47	14.61	14.76
Year 2 PV (M)	17.01	17.35	17.70
Year 3 PV (M)	19.02	19.60	20.19
Year 4 PV (M)	20.57	21.41	22.27
Year 5 PV (M)	21.72	22.83	23.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)	368.41	387.20	406.74
Equity Value (M)	461.21	483.00	505.64
Shares Outstanding (M)	12.83	12.83	12.83
Fair Value	$35.94	$37.64	$39.40
Upside / Downside	-38.72%	-35.83%	-32.82%

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Haynes International, Inc. (HAYN)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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