Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

GuocoLand Limited (F17.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.88 - $7.82$4.43
Multi-Stage$3.10 - $3.40$3.25
Blended Fair Value$3.84
Current Price$1.50
Upside156.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-3.01%1.85%0.060.060.060.060.060.070.070.070.090.05
YoY Growth--0.14%0.01%0.00%0.00%-14.29%0.00%0.00%-22.22%80.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.99%3.76%3.91%3.78%3.73%4.77%3.47%3.67%3.95%2.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)137.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.4917.1810.31
Cash Retained (M)70.7570.7570.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.49-17.18-10.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.2653.5760.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,114.381,114.381,114.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Fair Value$2.88$4.43$7.82
Upside / Downside91.94%195.59%421.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)137.43143.14149.07155.26161.70168.41173.46
Payout Ratio48.52%56.82%65.11%73.41%81.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.6881.3297.07113.97132.12151.57160.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Year 1 PV (M)75.5076.2376.96
Year 2 PV (M)83.6585.2886.93
Year 3 PV (M)91.1993.8796.60
Year 4 PV (M)98.13101.99105.96
Year 5 PV (M)104.51109.68115.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,003.223,151.653,305.89
Equity Value (M)3,456.203,618.703,787.38
Shares Outstanding (M)1,114.381,114.381,114.38
Fair Value$3.10$3.25$3.40
Upside / Downside106.76%116.48%126.58%

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