DDM Analysis: CNQ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$174.20 - $630.39	$551.36
Multi-Stage	$82.13 - $89.73	$85.86
Blended Fair Value	$318.61
Current Price	$44.49
Upside	616.15%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.50%	16.58%	2.11	1.85	2.35	0.82	0.93	0.83	0.74	0.60	0.36	0.60
YoY Growth	-	-	13.83%	-21.01%	187.13%	-12.02%	11.88%	11.59%	24.76%	65.17%	-39.41%	30.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.76%	3.56%	6.27%	2.11%	4.79%	8.71%	3.99%	3.01%	1.65%	3.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	6,655.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,755.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,900.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,331.00	831.88	499.13
Cash Retained (M)	1,900.00	1,900.00	1,900.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,331.00	-831.88	-499.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	569.00	1,068.13	1,400.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,099.52	2,099.52	2,099.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.51	0.67
LTM Dividend per Share	2.26	2.26	2.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.51	0.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.54	2.77	2.93
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$174.20	$551.36	$630.39
Upside / Downside	291.55%	1,139.29%	1,316.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	6,655.00	7,087.58	7,548.27	8,038.90	8,561.43	9,117.93	9,391.46
Payout Ratio	71.45%	75.16%	78.87%	82.58%	86.29%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,755.00	5,327.02	5,953.32	6,638.53	7,387.66	8,206.13	8,687.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,930.13	4,976.86	5,023.60
Year 2 PV (M)	5,099.26	5,196.39	5,294.43
Year 3 PV (M)	5,262.52	5,413.59	5,567.52
Year 4 PV (M)	5,420.05	5,628.49	5,842.88
Year 5 PV (M)	5,571.97	5,841.10	6,120.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)	146,158.13	153,217.63	160,547.30
Equity Value (M)	172,442.08	180,274.06	188,396.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,099.52	2,099.52	2,099.52
Fair Value	$82.13	$85.86	$89.73
Upside / Downside	84.61%	93.00%	101.69%

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Ticker ⇵	Company ⇵	Dividend Yield % ▼	Dividend Per Share ⇵	Payout Ratio % ⇵
6101.T	Tsugami Corporation	2.08%	$59.70	21.18%
9549.SR	Abdulaziz and Mansour Ibrahim Albabtin Co.	2.08%	$0.50	29.71%
FPAR-A.ST	FastPartner AB (publ)	2.08%	$0.97	55.03%
GRNG.ST	Gränges AB (publ)	2.08%	$3.09	34.78%
ZGN	Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.	2.08%	$0.22	28.26%
000983.SZ	Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.,Ltd.	2.07%	$0.13	44.44%
006090.KS	Oyang Corporation	2.07%	$187.55	43.67%
0O1O.L	Vetoquinol S.A.	2.07%	$1.74	19.10%
1748.HK	Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Limited	2.07%	$0.04	62.70%
4677.KL	YTL Corporation Berhad	2.07%	$0.04	26.42%
603136.SS	Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.,Ltd	2.07%	$0.24	64.23%
7965.T	Zojirushi Corporation	2.07%	$32.35	36.35%
MRSA3B.SA	MRS Logística S.A.	2.07%	$0.81	18.86%
OCL.AX	Objective Corporation Limited	2.07%	$0.34	57.76%
TRTN	Triton International Limited	2.07%	$1.65	28.50%
001219.SZ	Qingdao Foods CO.,LTD.	2.06%	$0.29	55.25%
002351.SZ	Edifier Technology Co., Ltd.	2.06%	$0.25	53.80%
004830.KS	Duksung Co., Ltd.	2.06%	$100.30	19.66%
600120.SS	Zhejiang Orient Financial Holdings Group Co., Ltd.	2.06%	$0.13	32.28%
600143.SS	Kingfa Sci. & Tech. Co., Ltd.	2.06%	$0.40	85.82%
7735.T	SCREEN Holdings Co., Ltd.	2.06%	$314.43	32.13%
ALSO3.SA	Aliansce Sonae Shopping Centers S.A.	2.06%	$0.52	9.27%
MLIA.JK	PT Mulia Industrindo Tbk	2.06%	$6.98	27.72%
REA.AX	REA Group Limited	2.06%	$3.81	51.46%
THEON.AS	Theon International PLC	2.06%	$0.55	52.53%
000902.SZ	YONFER Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd.	2.05%	$0.32	26.06%
002938.SZ	Avary Holding(Shenzhen)Co., Limited	2.05%	$1.04	59.37%
036930.KQ	JUSUNG ENGINEERING Co., Ltd.	2.05%	$625.50	45.79%
086280.KS	Hyundai Glovis Co., Ltd.	2.05%	$3,700.10	19.97%
2730.T	EDION Corporation	2.05%	$43.41	30.64%
4191.SR	Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores Company	2.05%	$1.01	76.56%
9527.SR	Ame Company For Medical Supplies	2.05%	$2.00	27.73%
BMIN3.SA	Banco Mercantil de Investimentos S.A.	2.05%	$0.47	28.32%
GUAR3.SA	Guararapes Confecções S.A.	2.05%	$0.18	20.09%
MGROS.IS	Migros Ticaret A.S.	2.05%	$10.88	31.41%
MLL.DE	Müller - Die lila Logistik AG	2.05%	$0.10	6.76%
RAY-A.TO	Stingray Group Inc.	2.05%	$0.30	39.32%
VIVA3.SA	Vivara Participações S.A.	2.05%	$0.66	20.93%
268280.KS	Miwon Specialty Chemical Co., Ltd.	2.04%	$2,814.57	22.79%
2869.HK	Greentown Service Group Co. Ltd.	2.04%	$0.09	17.96%
450330.KQ	Hass	2.04%	$131.79	35.27%
605589.SS	Jinan Shengquan Group Share Holding Co., Ltd.	2.04%	$0.58	44.86%
CEK.DE	CeoTronics AG	2.04%	$0.26	34.71%
CSAP.JK	PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana Tbk	2.04%	$6.50	30.53%
ROTH.PA	Rothschild & Co SCA	2.04%	$0.78	13.71%
2476.TW	G-SHANK Enterprise Co., Ltd.	2.03%	$1.85	49.48%
2852.KL	Cahya Mata Sarawak Berhad	2.03%	$0.03	28.80%
3788.HK	China Hanking Holdings Limited	2.03%	$0.08	36.16%
4004.SR	Dallah Healthcare Company	2.03%	$2.54	49.37%
601607.SS	Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co., Ltd	2.03%	$0.36	23.77%

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Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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