DDM Analysis: 603565.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8.75 - $12.95	$10.76
Multi-Stage	$8.53 - $9.22	$8.87
Blended Fair Value	$9.81
Current Price	$10.89
Upside	-9.89%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	63.43%	73.83%	0.84	0.15	1.50	0.29	0.10	0.07	0.05	0.25	0.00	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	462.95%	-90.06%	423.48%	200.00%	32.68%	45.32%	-80.48%	6,472.66%	-93.56%	1,699.48%
Dividend Yield	-	-	8.76%	1.65%	12.97%	2.35%	0.84%	0.64%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,137.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,864.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)	272.86

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	427.42	267.14	160.28
Cash Retained (M)	272.86	272.86	272.86
(-) Cash Required (M)	-427.42	-267.14	-160.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-154.56	5.72	112.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,100.57	2,100.57	2,100.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.07	0.00	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.89	0.89	0.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.07	0.00	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.81	0.89	0.94
WACC / Discount Rate	15.31%	15.31%	15.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$8.75	$10.76	$12.95
Upside / Downside	-19.66%	-1.23%	18.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,137.09	2,276.00	2,423.94	2,581.50	2,749.30	2,928.00	3,015.84
Payout Ratio	87.23%	87.79%	88.34%	88.89%	89.45%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,864.24	1,998.01	2,141.30	2,294.77	2,459.15	2,635.20	2,789.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	15.31%	15.31%	15.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,716.40	1,732.67	1,748.94
Year 2 PV (M)	1,580.22	1,610.32	1,640.70
Year 3 PV (M)	1,454.79	1,496.55	1,539.10
Year 4 PV (M)	1,339.26	1,390.77	1,443.74
Year 5 PV (M)	1,232.86	1,292.41	1,354.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,598.55	11,110.46	11,641.97
Equity Value (M)	17,922.08	18,633.18	19,368.69
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,100.57	2,100.57	2,100.57
Fair Value	$8.53	$8.87	$9.22
Upside / Downside	-21.65%	-18.54%	-15.33%

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Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics Co., Ltd. (603565.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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