Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Anhui Zhongyuan New Materials Co., Ltd. (603527.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.46 - $46.90$20.96
Multi-Stage$8.15 - $8.89$8.51
Blended Fair Value$14.74
Current Price$11.56
Upside27.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.70%-1.61%0.260.270.230.150.150.140.130.100.090.05
YoY Growth---4.88%18.60%50.71%-0.28%12.10%5.40%33.62%9.81%94.07%-85.09%
Dividend Yield--2.60%2.51%1.68%1.34%2.02%1.46%1.40%0.74%0.90%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)135.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)82.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.1416.9710.18
Cash Retained (M)53.3153.3153.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.14-16.97-10.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.1636.3443.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)315.78315.78315.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.46$20.96$46.90
Upside / Downside7.79%81.28%305.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)135.72144.54153.94163.94174.60185.95191.53
Payout Ratio60.72%66.58%72.43%78.29%84.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)82.4196.23111.50128.35146.92167.35177.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)87.9388.7789.60
Year 2 PV (M)93.1094.8796.66
Year 3 PV (M)97.92100.73103.60
Year 4 PV (M)102.42106.36110.41
Year 5 PV (M)106.61111.75117.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,085.532,186.262,290.85
Equity Value (M)2,573.512,688.752,808.22
Shares Outstanding (M)315.78315.78315.78
Fair Value$8.15$8.51$8.89
Upside / Downside-29.50%-26.34%-23.07%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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