Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. (601952.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.33 - $83.39$78.15
Multi-Stage$11.68 - $12.77$12.22
Blended Fair Value$45.18
Current Price$9.38
Upside381.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.22%14.89%0.370.300.240.210.200.200.150.150.150.15
YoY Growth--24.02%25.00%14.29%5.00%0.00%30.00%6.00%0.00%0.00%56.25%
Dividend Yield--3.94%2.91%2.03%1.50%1.85%1.80%1.96%1.60%1.41%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)577.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)389.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)188.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)115.5672.2343.34
Cash Retained (M)188.25188.25188.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-115.56-72.23-43.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)72.69116.03144.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,378.001,378.001,378.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.33$78.15$83.39
Upside / Downside202.04%733.15%789.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)577.82615.37655.37697.97743.34791.66815.41
Payout Ratio67.42%71.94%76.45%80.97%85.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)389.56442.67501.04565.13635.44712.49754.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)410.79414.69418.58
Year 2 PV (M)431.47439.69447.99
Year 3 PV (M)451.61464.58477.79
Year 4 PV (M)471.22489.34507.98
Year 5 PV (M)490.31513.99538.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,844.4114,513.1015,207.38
Equity Value (M)16,099.8216,835.3917,598.30
Shares Outstanding (M)1,378.001,378.001,378.00
Fair Value$11.68$12.22$12.77
Upside / Downside24.56%30.25%36.15%

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