DDM Analysis: 601390.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$48.77 - $208.42	$120.07
Multi-Stage	$30.72 - $33.64	$32.15
Blended Fair Value	$76.11
Current Price	$5.51
Upside	1,281.37%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	49.61%	5.56%	0.93	0.99	0.89	0.19	0.18	0.12	0.14	0.45	0.47	0.52
YoY Growth	-	-	-5.29%	11.17%	370.68%	6.51%	42.01%	-11.12%	-68.63%	-5.54%	-8.92%	-4.42%
Dividend Yield	-	-	16.89%	13.71%	12.89%	3.12%	2.99%	2.32%	1.90%	6.06%	5.36%	6.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	24,807.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12,483.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)	12,323.67

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	4,961.44	3,100.90	1,860.54
Cash Retained (M)	12,323.67	12,323.67	12,323.67
(-) Cash Required (M)	-4,961.44	-3,100.90	-1,860.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)	7,362.23	9,222.77	10,463.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	23,474.23	23,474.23	23,474.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.31	0.39	0.45
LTM Dividend per Share	0.53	0.53	0.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.31	0.39	0.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.85	0.92	0.98
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	4.61%	5.61%	6.61%
Fair Value	$48.77	$120.07	$208.42
Upside / Downside	785.16%	2,079.21%	3,682.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	24,807.19	26,198.11	27,667.01	29,218.28	30,856.52	32,586.62	33,564.22
Payout Ratio	50.32%	58.26%	66.19%	74.13%	82.06%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12,483.52	15,262.43	18,313.71	21,659.18	25,322.23	29,327.96	31,046.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	4.61%	5.61%	6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)	14,205.86	14,341.66	14,477.47
Year 2 PV (M)	15,865.89	16,170.68	16,478.37
Year 3 PV (M)	17,465.22	17,970.91	18,486.26
Year 4 PV (M)	19,005.44	19,742.67	20,501.14
Year 5 PV (M)	20,488.11	21,486.31	22,523.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	634,144.55	665,040.47	697,129.04
Equity Value (M)	721,175.08	754,752.70	789,595.30
Shares Outstanding (M)	23,474.23	23,474.23	23,474.23
Fair Value	$30.72	$32.15	$33.64
Upside / Downside	457.57%	483.53%	510.47%

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Financial Statements

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China Railway Group Limited (601390.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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