Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

The People's Insurance Company (Group) of China Limited (601319.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.68 - $206.83$100.45
Multi-Stage$23.71 - $25.92$24.80
Blended Fair Value$62.62
Current Price$8.71
Upside618.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.48%24.44%0.270.340.220.210.230.050.070.070.060.04
YoY Growth---20.57%54.89%4.06%-8.78%402.72%-38.04%13.07%13.90%44.99%31.06%
Dividend Yield--3.93%6.37%4.19%4.58%3.87%0.73%0.75%1.36%1.19%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45,994.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19,445.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)26,549.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,198.805,749.253,449.55
Cash Retained (M)26,549.0026,549.0026,549.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,198.80-5,749.25-3,449.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)17,350.2020,799.7523,099.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)44,223.9944,223.9944,223.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.470.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.470.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.910.96
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44.68$100.45$206.83
Upside / Downside412.92%1,053.30%2,274.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45,994.0048,983.6152,167.5455,558.4459,169.7363,015.7764,906.24
Payout Ratio42.28%51.82%61.37%70.91%80.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19,445.0025,384.1932,013.3239,396.9947,605.2856,714.1960,038.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)23,399.1423,620.9323,842.73
Year 2 PV (M)27,202.1927,720.3228,243.33
Year 3 PV (M)30,858.3631,744.1932,646.81
Year 4 PV (M)34,371.7435,693.5837,053.18
Year 5 PV (M)37,746.3339,569.4941,462.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)894,970.39938,197.79983,079.61
Equity Value (M)1,048,548.141,096,546.301,146,328.09
Shares Outstanding (M)44,223.9944,223.9944,223.99
Fair Value$23.71$24.80$25.92
Upside / Downside172.22%184.68%197.60%

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