Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial Co., Ltd. (2555.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.19 - $14.27$11.54
Multi-Stage$21.88 - $24.06$22.95
Blended Fair Value$17.24
Current Price$8.68
Upside98.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.690.440.290.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---98.61%57.42%47.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.09%5.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,349.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,027.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)321.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)269.83168.64101.19
Cash Retained (M)321.17321.17321.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-269.83-168.64-101.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.34152.52219.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,385.711,385.711,385.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.110.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.110.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$9.19$11.54$14.27
Upside / Downside5.83%32.92%64.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,349.151,335.651,322.301,309.081,295.981,283.021,321.52
Payout Ratio76.19%78.96%81.72%84.48%87.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,027.981,054.581,080.541,105.881,130.601,154.721,222.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)981.96991.981,002.00
Year 2 PV (M)936.86956.08975.49
Year 3 PV (M)892.81920.42948.60
Year 4 PV (M)849.92885.15921.46
Year 5 PV (M)808.29850.37894.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,852.0827,198.2628,599.94
Equity Value (M)30,321.9331,802.2733,341.69
Shares Outstanding (M)1,385.711,385.711,385.71
Fair Value$21.88$22.95$24.06
Upside / Downside152.10%164.40%177.20%

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