DDM Analysis: 2313.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$796.78 - $1,567.46	$1,468.94
Multi-Stage	$245.38 - $268.48	$256.72
Blended Fair Value	$862.83
Current Price	$50.90
Upside	1,595.14%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.81%	14.47%	2.12	1.64	1.37	1.81	1.72	1.60	1.37	1.65	0.83	0.73
YoY Growth	-	-	29.62%	19.14%	-24.08%	5.23%	7.47%	16.78%	-17.16%	98.05%	13.63%	33.79%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.64%	2.29%	1.77%	1.48%	1.34%	1.57%	1.76%	2.59%	1.90%	1.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	11,847.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6,284.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	5,563.26

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,369.57	1,480.98	888.59
Cash Retained (M)	5,563.26	5,563.26	5,563.26
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,369.57	-1,480.98	-888.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,193.69	4,082.27	4,674.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,503.22	1,503.22	1,503.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.12	2.72	3.11
LTM Dividend per Share	4.18	4.18	4.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.12	2.72	3.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.31	6.90	7.29
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$796.78	$1,468.94	$1,567.46
Upside / Downside	1,465.38%	2,785.93%	2,979.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	11,847.85	12,617.96	13,438.13	14,311.61	15,241.86	16,232.58	16,719.56
Payout Ratio	53.04%	60.44%	67.83%	75.22%	82.61%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6,284.60	7,625.71	9,114.61	10,764.86	12,591.12	14,609.32	15,465.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	7,104.07	7,171.41	7,238.75
Year 2 PV (M)	7,910.29	8,060.96	8,213.05
Year 3 PV (M)	8,703.41	8,953.26	9,207.84
Year 4 PV (M)	9,483.59	9,848.31	10,223.44
Year 5 PV (M)	10,250.99	10,746.11	11,260.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)	325,403.58	341,120.70	357,439.34
Equity Value (M)	368,855.94	385,900.75	403,582.61
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,503.22	1,503.22	1,503.22
Fair Value	$245.38	$256.72	$268.48
Upside / Downside	382.08%	404.35%	427.46%

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Financial Statements

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Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited (2313.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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