Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Lesso Group Holdings Limited (2128.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.78 - $14.64$12.09
Multi-Stage$16.86 - $18.55$17.69
Blended Fair Value$14.89
Current Price$3.82
Upside289.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.34%6.62%0.180.270.210.420.360.280.230.130.110.10
YoY Growth---32.59%28.12%-49.21%16.71%26.36%21.17%73.95%21.24%6.39%7.92%
Dividend Yield--5.59%7.61%2.93%4.55%3.48%3.16%6.75%3.08%2.45%2.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,604.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)571.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,033.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)720.85450.53270.32
Cash Retained (M)3,033.153,033.153,033.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-720.85-450.53-270.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,312.302,582.622,762.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,079.433,079.433,079.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.750.840.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.750.840.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.94%7.94%7.94%
Growth Rate-1.49%-0.49%0.51%
Fair Value$9.78$12.09$14.64
Upside / Downside156.01%216.40%283.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,604.263,586.683,569.203,551.803,534.483,517.253,622.76
Payout Ratio15.85%30.68%45.51%60.34%75.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)571.101,100.261,624.242,143.092,656.833,165.523,351.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.94%7.94%7.94%
Growth Rate-1.49%-0.49%0.51%
Year 1 PV (M)1,009.041,019.281,029.53
Year 2 PV (M)1,366.091,393.961,422.12
Year 3 PV (M)1,653.031,703.881,755.77
Year 4 PV (M)1,879.401,956.882,036.74
Year 5 PV (M)2,053.592,159.962,270.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,968.6646,246.0648,616.86
Equity Value (M)51,929.8154,480.0357,131.70
Shares Outstanding (M)3,079.433,079.433,079.43
Fair Value$16.86$17.69$18.55
Upside / Downside341.45%363.13%385.67%

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