DDM Analysis: 1378.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$417.75 - $904.15	$847.32
Multi-Stage	$138.31 - $151.30	$144.68
Blended Fair Value	$496.00
Current Price	$16.40
Upside	2,924.40%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	37.23%	22.18%	0.97	0.45	0.94	0.76	0.39	0.20	0.51	0.00	0.10	0.14
YoY Growth	-	-	113.99%	-51.59%	23.82%	93.40%	96.16%	-60.50%	0.00%	-100.00%	-31.96%	8.46%
Dividend Yield	-	-	8.80%	7.84%	14.41%	11.31%	6.56%	4.75%	12.93%	0.00%	1.59%	3.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	43,737.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	24,880.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)	18,857.31

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8,747.49	5,467.18	3,280.31
Cash Retained (M)	18,857.31	18,857.31	18,857.31
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8,747.49	-5,467.18	-3,280.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)	10,109.82	13,390.13	15,577.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	9,620.41	9,620.41	9,620.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.05	1.39	1.62
LTM Dividend per Share	2.59	2.59	2.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.05	1.39	1.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.64	3.98	4.21
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$417.75	$847.32	$904.15
Upside / Downside	2,447.23%	5,066.59%	5,413.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	43,737.43	46,580.37	49,608.09	52,832.61	56,266.73	59,924.07	61,721.79
Payout Ratio	56.89%	63.51%	70.13%	76.75%	83.38%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	24,880.12	29,582.33	34,790.71	40,551.19	46,913.54	53,931.67	57,092.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	27,537.09	27,798.10	28,059.12
Year 2 PV (M)	30,146.33	30,720.53	31,300.15
Year 3 PV (M)	32,708.48	33,647.43	34,604.17
Year 4 PV (M)	35,224.16	36,578.78	37,972.11
Year 5 PV (M)	37,693.97	39,514.61	41,404.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,167,265.86	1,223,645.24	1,282,182.39
Equity Value (M)	1,330,575.90	1,391,904.70	1,455,522.86
Shares Outstanding (M)	9,620.41	9,620.41	9,620.41
Fair Value	$138.31	$144.68	$151.30
Upside / Downside	743.34%	782.21%	822.53%

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China Hongqiao Group Limited (1378.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener