Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nexen Corporation (005720.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$219,309.62 - $258,383.89$242,143.54
Multi-Stage$157,151.18 - $172,481.62$164,673.21
Blended Fair Value$203,408.38
Current Price$6,330.00
Upside3,113.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.00%17.25%257.21227.46226.49211.80208.5681.00114.7578.3857.5757.57
YoY Growth--13.08%0.43%6.93%1.55%157.49%-29.41%46.40%36.16%0.00%9.94%
Dividend Yield--5.60%5.54%5.50%4.79%4.43%2.22%1.82%1.09%0.68%0.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)67,790.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,690.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)53,100.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,558.098,473.815,084.28
Cash Retained (M)53,100.1553,100.1553,100.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,558.09-8,473.81-5,084.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)39,542.0644,626.3448,015.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)52.1852.1852.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share757.84855.28920.24
LTM Dividend per Share281.54281.54281.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share757.84855.28920.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1,039.381,136.821,201.79
WACC / Discount Rate1.20%1.20%1.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$219,309.62$242,143.54$258,383.89
Upside / Downside3,364.61%3,725.33%3,981.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)67,790.4572,196.8376,889.6281,887.4587,210.1392,878.7995,665.15
Payout Ratio21.67%35.34%49.00%62.67%76.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,690.3025,511.5637,677.5351,317.2866,571.0183,590.9188,490.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.20%1.20%1.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)24,973.4225,210.1425,446.85
Year 2 PV (M)36,104.7536,792.4537,486.63
Year 3 PV (M)48,137.8449,519.7050,927.76
Year 4 PV (M)61,129.2563,480.1165,898.13
Year 5 PV (M)75,138.7578,767.9882,536.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,954,271.808,338,466.118,737,364.43
Equity Value (M)8,199,755.828,592,236.488,999,659.91
Shares Outstanding (M)52.1852.1852.18
Fair Value$157,151.18$164,673.21$172,481.62
Upside / Downside2,382.64%2,501.47%2,624.83%

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