Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

GF Securities Co., Ltd. (000776.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.66 - $146.07$73.71
Multi-Stage$71.67 - $78.72$75.13
Blended Fair Value$74.42
Current Price$22.28
Upside234.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.05%5.85%0.550.471.261.050.930.790.980.901.430.52
YoY Growth--17.41%-62.84%19.90%12.14%18.29%-19.76%9.83%-37.29%174.93%67.53%
Dividend Yield--3.40%3.47%7.96%5.96%5.96%5.77%6.01%5.44%8.36%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,806.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,324.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,481.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,761.331,725.831,035.50
Cash Retained (M)5,481.755,481.755,481.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,761.33-1,725.83-1,035.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,720.413,755.914,446.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,793.177,793.177,793.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.480.57
LTM Dividend per Share1.071.071.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.480.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.421.551.64
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Fair Value$45.66$73.71$146.07
Upside / Downside104.96%230.82%555.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,806.6714,227.5914,661.3315,108.3015,568.9016,043.5316,524.84
Payout Ratio60.30%66.24%72.18%78.12%84.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,324.939,423.9410,582.2311,802.3913,087.1014,439.1815,285.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Year 1 PV (M)8,869.858,956.769,043.68
Year 2 PV (M)9,374.429,559.049,745.47
Year 3 PV (M)9,840.5710,132.7110,430.57
Year 4 PV (M)10,270.1610,678.6811,099.26
Year 5 PV (M)10,664.9811,197.8611,751.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)509,496.22534,953.69561,418.74
Equity Value (M)558,516.19585,478.74613,489.56
Shares Outstanding (M)7,793.177,793.177,793.17
Fair Value$71.67$75.13$78.72
Upside / Downside221.67%237.20%253.33%

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