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Union Bankshares, Inc. (UNB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.11 - $41.53$33.13
Multi-Stage$34.64 - $37.88$36.23
Blended Fair Value$34.68
Current Price$24.76
Upside40.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.21%3.35%1.421.411.371.291.251.211.171.131.091.06
YoY Growth--0.45%2.87%6.11%3.30%3.42%3.25%3.44%4.29%2.55%3.86%
Dividend Yield--4.50%4.61%6.20%4.15%4.17%5.37%2.57%2.23%2.53%3.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.271.420.85
Cash Retained (M)4.874.874.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.27-1.42-0.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.603.454.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.554.554.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.760.88
LTM Dividend per Share1.421.421.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.760.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.992.182.30
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate1.35%2.35%3.35%
Fair Value$26.11$33.13$41.53
Upside / Downside5.47%33.79%67.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.3311.6011.8712.1512.4312.7313.11
Payout Ratio57.02%63.62%70.21%76.81%83.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.467.388.339.3310.3711.4512.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate1.35%2.35%3.35%
Year 1 PV (M)6.706.766.83
Year 2 PV (M)6.877.007.14
Year 3 PV (M)6.987.197.40
Year 4 PV (M)7.047.337.62
Year 5 PV (M)7.067.427.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)122.95129.13135.57
Equity Value (M)157.60164.83172.34
Shares Outstanding (M)4.554.554.55
Fair Value$34.64$36.23$37.88
Upside / Downside39.91%46.34%53.00%

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