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TraWell Co S.p.A. (TWL.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.94 - $12.91$10.17
Multi-Stage$14.74 - $16.22$15.47
Blended Fair Value$12.82
Current Price$6.10
Upside110.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.67%0.00%0.510.691.180.060.130.200.650.400.090.00
YoY Growth---26.50%-41.51%1,751.95%-49.36%-36.56%-69.59%64.33%352.61%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.47%8.56%19.96%1.07%1.83%1.69%2.93%1.25%1.64%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.370.230.14
Cash Retained (M)1.301.301.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.37-0.23-0.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.941.081.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.512.512.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.640.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-0.51%0.49%1.49%
Fair Value$7.94$10.17$12.91
Upside / Downside30.19%66.68%111.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1.831.841.851.861.871.881.93
Payout Ratio28.69%40.95%53.21%65.48%77.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.520.750.981.221.451.691.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-0.51%0.49%1.49%
Year 1 PV (M)0.700.710.71
Year 2 PV (M)0.850.860.88
Year 3 PV (M)0.971.001.03
Year 4 PV (M)1.071.121.16
Year 5 PV (M)1.161.221.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)32.3333.9835.71
Equity Value (M)37.0738.8840.77
Shares Outstanding (M)2.512.512.51
Fair Value$14.74$15.47$16.22
Upside / Downside141.72%153.55%165.85%

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