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Kearny Financial Corp. (KRNY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.55 - $7.06$5.71
Multi-Stage$6.66 - $7.27$6.96
Blended Fair Value$6.34
Current Price$6.57
Upside-3.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.76%0.00%0.440.440.450.490.460.380.550.330.130.11
YoY Growth--0.25%-3.28%-7.15%7.14%18.77%-30.58%68.99%148.14%15.66%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.70%6.39%6.55%4.60%3.67%5.33%4.25%2.40%0.86%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.903.692.21
Cash Retained (M)1.771.771.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.90-3.69-2.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.13-1.92-0.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.7662.7662.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.03-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.03-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate0.76%1.76%2.76%
Fair Value$4.55$5.71$7.06
Upside / Downside-30.74%-13.05%7.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.4930.0130.5331.0731.6232.1733.14
Payout Ratio93.99%93.20%92.40%91.60%90.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.7227.9728.2128.4628.7128.9530.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate0.76%1.76%2.76%
Year 1 PV (M)25.3925.6425.89
Year 2 PV (M)23.2523.7124.18
Year 3 PV (M)21.2921.9322.58
Year 4 PV (M)19.4920.2821.09
Year 5 PV (M)17.8518.7519.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)310.73326.45342.81
Equity Value (M)417.98436.76456.24
Shares Outstanding (M)62.7662.7662.76
Fair Value$6.66$6.96$7.27
Upside / Downside1.37%5.92%10.64%

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