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The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.34 - $99.17$79.82
Multi-Stage$82.79 - $90.78$86.71
Blended Fair Value$83.26
Current Price$46.63
Upside78.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.40%9.16%1.231.201.121.111.111.091.030.930.770.73
YoY Growth--3.13%6.37%0.84%0.38%1.39%5.97%10.96%20.18%6.81%41.31%
Dividend Yield--2.64%1.76%2.98%2.90%2.78%3.28%3.67%1.90%1.55%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)164.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.8225.5115.31
Cash Retained (M)164.50164.50164.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.82-25.51-15.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)123.68138.99149.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.1332.1332.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.854.334.64
LTM Dividend per Share1.231.231.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.854.334.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.085.565.88
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate0.98%1.98%2.98%
Fair Value$63.34$79.82$99.17
Upside / Downside35.84%71.18%112.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.10208.14212.25216.45220.74225.10231.86
Payout Ratio19.40%33.52%47.64%61.76%75.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.6069.77101.12133.68167.50202.59214.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate0.98%1.98%2.98%
Year 1 PV (M)63.3463.9664.59
Year 2 PV (M)83.3384.9986.66
Year 3 PV (M)100.00103.00106.06
Year 4 PV (M)113.74118.31123.02
Year 5 PV (M)124.88131.19137.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,174.362,284.172,398.39
Equity Value (M)2,659.642,785.632,916.47
Shares Outstanding (M)32.1332.1332.13
Fair Value$82.79$86.71$90.78
Upside / Downside77.54%85.95%94.68%

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