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Chemung Financial Corporation (CHMG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.18 - $108.08$72.55
Multi-Stage$43.77 - $47.79$45.75
Blended Fair Value$59.15
Current Price$52.52
Upside12.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.93%4.38%1.541.221.211.111.041.051.041.031.021.01
YoY Growth--26.11%0.74%9.01%6.23%-0.46%1.21%1.06%0.80%0.93%0.77%
Dividend Yield--3.23%2.91%2.91%2.37%2.50%3.18%2.15%2.21%2.57%3.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.661.661.00
Cash Retained (M)7.117.117.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.66-1.66-1.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.455.456.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.804.804.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.931.141.27
LTM Dividend per Share1.291.291.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.931.141.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.212.422.56
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.57%5.57%6.57%
Fair Value$51.18$72.55$108.08
Upside / Downside-2.55%38.13%105.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.2814.0214.8015.6216.4917.4117.93
Payout Ratio46.47%55.18%63.88%72.59%81.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.177.739.4511.3413.4115.6716.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.57%5.57%6.57%
Year 1 PV (M)7.027.097.16
Year 2 PV (M)7.797.948.09
Year 3 PV (M)8.498.738.98
Year 4 PV (M)9.119.469.83
Year 5 PV (M)9.6710.1410.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)167.84176.02184.52
Equity Value (M)209.93219.39229.21
Shares Outstanding (M)4.804.804.80
Fair Value$43.77$45.75$47.79
Upside / Downside-16.66%-12.90%-9.00%

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