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City Holding Company (CHCO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$140.83 - $270.68$192.81
Multi-Stage$133.26 - $145.66$139.35
Blended Fair Value$166.08
Current Price$123.87
Upside34.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.11%5.91%2.992.752.522.482.522.442.031.861.771.74
YoY Growth--8.72%8.97%1.56%-1.46%3.17%20.16%9.08%5.45%1.64%3.34%
Dividend Yield--2.54%2.66%2.77%3.15%3.08%3.67%2.63%2.72%2.74%3.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)81.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.5115.959.57
Cash Retained (M)81.3081.3081.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.51-15.95-9.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.7965.3571.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.5714.5714.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.834.494.92
LTM Dividend per Share3.183.183.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.834.494.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.017.668.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Fair Value$140.83$192.81$270.68
Upside / Downside13.69%55.65%118.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127.57133.83140.41147.30154.53162.12166.98
Payout Ratio36.27%47.02%57.76%68.51%79.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.2762.9281.10100.91122.47145.91154.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Year 1 PV (M)57.1457.6958.24
Year 2 PV (M)66.8768.1669.47
Year 3 PV (M)75.5577.7580.00
Year 4 PV (M)83.2686.5189.85
Year 5 PV (M)90.0794.4899.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,568.161,645.081,725.00
Equity Value (M)1,941.042,029.682,121.63
Shares Outstanding (M)14.5714.5714.57
Fair Value$133.26$139.35$145.66
Upside / Downside7.58%12.50%17.59%

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