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AAON, Inc. (AAON)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.26 - $74.97$43.22
Multi-Stage$19.49 - $21.29$20.38
Blended Fair Value$31.80
Current Price$93.44
Upside-65.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.40%10.45%0.310.320.280.240.240.200.200.160.150.14
YoY Growth---1.37%15.39%14.89%0.67%19.04%-0.50%22.43%7.79%6.91%22.79%
Dividend Yield--0.40%0.36%0.43%0.65%0.51%0.62%0.65%0.63%0.65%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)100.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)69.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.0512.537.52
Cash Retained (M)69.3069.3069.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.05-12.53-7.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.2556.7761.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.2183.2183.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.680.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.680.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.26$43.22$74.97
Upside / Downside-69.75%-53.75%-19.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)100.25106.77113.71121.10128.97137.35141.47
Payout Ratio30.87%42.70%54.52%66.35%78.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.9545.5962.0080.35100.82123.62130.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)41.3941.7942.18
Year 2 PV (M)51.1152.0953.07
Year 3 PV (M)60.1561.8863.64
Year 4 PV (M)68.5371.1773.88
Year 5 PV (M)76.3079.9883.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,324.521,388.501,454.92
Equity Value (M)1,622.011,695.401,771.49
Shares Outstanding (M)83.2183.2183.21
Fair Value$19.49$20.38$21.29
Upside / Downside-79.14%-78.19%-77.22%

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