Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Fangda Special Steel Technology Co., Ltd. (600507.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.08 - $2.88$2.48
Multi-Stage$4.93 - $5.45$5.19
Blended Fair Value$3.84
Current Price$5.42
Upside-29.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-36.86%-4.23%0.110.101.201.080.051.050.950.200.050.53
YoY Growth--8.87%-91.87%10.72%1,890.21%-94.86%10.50%374.77%305.94%-90.65%224.90%
Dividend Yield--2.54%2.29%21.34%12.52%0.61%19.46%9.58%1.82%1.02%15.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)847.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)796.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)169.54105.9663.58
Cash Retained (M)796.86796.86796.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-169.54-105.96-63.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)627.32690.89733.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,265.812,265.812,265.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.300.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.300.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate-6.23%-5.23%-4.23%
Fair Value$2.08$2.48$2.88
Upside / Downside-61.61%-54.17%-46.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)847.69803.40761.42721.64683.93648.20667.64
Payout Ratio6.00%22.80%39.60%56.40%73.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.84183.16301.51406.99500.63583.38617.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate-6.23%-5.23%-4.23%
Year 1 PV (M)168.95170.75172.55
Year 2 PV (M)256.55262.05267.61
Year 3 PV (M)319.45329.78340.33
Year 4 PV (M)362.47378.18394.40
Year 5 PV (M)389.62410.84432.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,672.2110,199.0410,748.58
Equity Value (M)11,169.2511,750.6412,356.44
Shares Outstanding (M)2,265.812,265.812,265.81
Fair Value$4.93$5.19$5.45
Upside / Downside-9.05%-4.32%0.62%

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