Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Colibri Technologies Co., Ltd. (002957.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88.36 - $104.14$97.58
Multi-Stage$58.06 - $63.81$60.88
Blended Fair Value$79.23
Current Price$19.26
Upside311.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.54%6.73%0.190.240.030.230.200.280.230.290.310.25
YoY Growth---19.07%605.88%-85.25%15.46%-30.56%21.39%-18.94%-7.29%26.87%145.26%
Dividend Yield--1.20%1.28%0.18%1.49%1.04%1.11%1.08%1.33%1.43%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)221.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)94.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)127.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.2927.6816.61
Cash Retained (M)127.04127.04127.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.29-27.68-16.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.7599.36110.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)415.03415.03415.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.49
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate3.51%4.51%5.51%
Fair Value$88.36$97.58$104.14
Upside / Downside358.79%406.65%440.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)221.43231.42241.86252.76264.16276.08284.36
Payout Ratio42.63%52.10%61.58%71.05%80.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)94.39120.58148.93179.59212.72248.47263.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate3.51%4.51%5.51%
Year 1 PV (M)117.64118.78119.92
Year 2 PV (M)141.77144.52147.30
Year 3 PV (M)166.80171.68176.66
Year 4 PV (M)192.76200.32208.10
Year 5 PV (M)219.68230.50241.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,255.8724,401.1525,591.12
Equity Value (M)24,094.5425,266.9726,484.84
Shares Outstanding (M)415.03415.03415.03
Fair Value$58.06$60.88$63.81
Upside / Downside201.43%216.10%231.33%

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