Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shaanxi Provincial Natural Gas Co.,Ltd (002267.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.33 - $120.58$55.39
Multi-Stage$14.44 - $15.76$15.09
Blended Fair Value$35.24
Current Price$8.12
Upside334.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.18%13.48%0.490.300.600.200.200.100.300.150.200.15
YoY Growth--61.92%-50.00%200.00%0.00%100.00%-66.67%100.00%-25.00%33.33%9.37%
Dividend Yield--6.00%4.57%8.28%3.18%3.03%1.72%3.47%2.16%2.13%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)674.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)576.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)98.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.9984.3750.62
Cash Retained (M)98.6798.6798.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.99-84.37-50.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)-36.3214.3048.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,112.131,112.131,112.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.010.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.010.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate5.39%6.39%7.39%
Fair Value$25.33$55.39$120.58
Upside / Downside211.97%582.18%1,384.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)674.94718.10764.01812.86864.84920.13947.74
Payout Ratio85.38%86.31%87.23%88.15%89.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)576.27619.75666.44716.56770.36828.12876.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate5.39%6.39%7.39%
Year 1 PV (M)571.56576.98582.40
Year 2 PV (M)566.81577.62588.53
Year 3 PV (M)562.04578.19594.65
Year 4 PV (M)557.25578.70600.77
Year 5 PV (M)552.44579.15606.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,249.6813,890.3014,555.46
Equity Value (M)16,059.7716,780.9417,528.69
Shares Outstanding (M)1,112.131,112.131,112.13
Fair Value$14.44$15.09$15.76
Upside / Downside77.84%85.82%94.10%

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