Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

SHAPE Australia Corporation Limited (SHA.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.66 - $85.62$80.23
Multi-Stage$50.35 - $55.28$52.77
Blended Fair Value$66.50
Current Price$4.45
Upside1,394.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.65%17.95%0.180.140.070.100.150.130.110.080.050.04
YoY Growth--29.75%107.33%-28.96%-34.03%9.46%21.73%37.64%71.45%24.24%5.79%
Dividend Yield--4.12%6.20%4.67%5.08%7.24%6.62%5.44%3.95%2.30%1.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.434.642.79
Cash Retained (M)13.4213.4213.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.43-4.64-2.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.008.7810.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)85.5885.5885.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate1.39%1.39%1.39%
Growth Rate4.65%5.65%6.65%
Fair Value$72.66$80.23$85.62
Upside / Downside1,532.81%1,702.95%1,824.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.1439.2441.4643.8046.2848.8950.36
Payout Ratio63.86%69.08%74.31%79.54%84.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.7127.1130.8134.8439.2344.0046.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.39%1.39%1.39%
Growth Rate4.65%5.65%6.65%
Year 1 PV (M)26.4826.7426.99
Year 2 PV (M)29.4029.9730.54
Year 3 PV (M)32.4933.4334.39
Year 4 PV (M)35.7437.1238.55
Year 5 PV (M)39.1741.0743.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,146.134,348.044,557.74
Equity Value (M)4,309.414,516.374,731.25
Shares Outstanding (M)85.5885.5885.58
Fair Value$50.35$52.77$55.28
Upside / Downside1,031.53%1,085.88%1,142.30%

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