Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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River Tech p.l.c. (RIVER.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.95 - $9.07$7.41
Multi-Stage$12.89 - $14.17$13.52
Blended Fair Value$10.46
Current Price$1.30
Upside704.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.430.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--27.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.751.721.03
Cash Retained (M)4.904.904.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.75-1.72-1.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.153.183.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.5520.5520.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.95$7.41$9.07
Upside / Downside357.53%470.13%598.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.7613.6213.4913.3513.2213.0913.48
Payout Ratio64.39%69.51%74.63%79.75%84.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.869.4710.0610.6511.2211.7812.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)8.778.868.95
Year 2 PV (M)8.648.829.00
Year 3 PV (M)8.478.739.00
Year 4 PV (M)8.278.618.97
Year 5 PV (M)8.058.478.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)222.71234.31246.38
Equity Value (M)264.92277.81291.21
Shares Outstanding (M)20.5520.5520.55
Fair Value$12.89$13.52$14.17
Upside / Downside891.54%939.77%989.93%

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