DDM Analysis: HFWA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$25.40 - $47.69	$34.47
Multi-Stage	$28.88 - $31.58	$30.20
Blended Fair Value	$32.33
Current Price	$24.19
Upside	33.67%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.56%	9.44%	0.92	0.89	0.85	0.84	0.84	0.90	0.75	0.53	0.63	0.46
YoY Growth	-	-	3.10%	4.51%	1.91%	0.27%	-6.63%	19.84%	40.90%	-15.13%	35.52%	23.46%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.79%	4.71%	3.99%	3.35%	2.96%	4.48%	2.44%	1.73%	2.53%	2.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	57.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	32.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)	24.87

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.44	7.15	4.29
Cash Retained (M)	24.87	24.87	24.87
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.44	-7.15	-4.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13.42	17.72	20.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	34.50	34.50	34.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.39	0.51	0.60
LTM Dividend per Share	0.94	0.94	0.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.39	0.51	0.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.33	1.45	1.53
WACC / Discount Rate	8.22%	8.22%	8.22%
Growth Rate	2.85%	3.85%	4.85%
Fair Value	$25.40	$34.47	$47.69
Upside / Downside	5.00%	42.48%	97.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	57.22	59.43	61.71	64.09	66.56	69.12	71.19
Payout Ratio	56.54%	63.23%	69.92%	76.62%	83.31%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	32.35	37.58	43.15	49.10	55.45	62.21	65.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.22%	8.22%	8.22%
Growth Rate	2.85%	3.85%	4.85%
Year 1 PV (M)	34.39	34.72	35.06
Year 2 PV (M)	36.14	36.84	37.56
Year 3 PV (M)	37.63	38.74	39.87
Year 4 PV (M)	38.89	40.42	42.00
Year 5 PV (M)	39.92	41.90	43.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)	809.19	849.30	890.98
Equity Value (M)	996.15	1,041.92	1,089.42
Shares Outstanding (M)	34.50	34.50	34.50
Fair Value	$28.88	$30.20	$31.58
Upside / Downside	19.38%	24.86%	30.55%

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Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener