DDM Analysis: FMNB

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$48.12 - $270.04	$87.82
Multi-Stage	$29.14 - $31.83	$30.46
Blended Fair Value	$59.14
Current Price	$14.41
Upside	310.41%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.22%	27.50%	0.67	0.67	0.58	0.37	0.34	0.28	0.22	0.16	0.11	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.03%	15.42%	56.37%	11.21%	20.07%	26.73%	38.32%	38.97%	61.24%	19.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.17%	5.12%	4.62%	2.19%	2.01%	2.41%	1.56%	1.15%	0.80%	0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	54.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	25.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)	28.89

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.87	6.79	4.08
Cash Retained (M)	28.89	28.89	28.89
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.87	-6.79	-4.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)	18.03	22.10	24.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	37.65	37.65	37.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	0.59	0.66
LTM Dividend per Share	0.68	0.68	0.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	0.59	0.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.15	1.26	1.34
WACC / Discount Rate	8.03%	8.03%	8.03%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$48.12	$87.82	$270.04
Upside / Downside	233.93%	509.45%	1,773.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	54.34	57.87	61.63	65.64	69.91	74.45	76.68
Payout Ratio	46.83%	55.46%	64.10%	72.73%	81.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	25.45	32.10	39.51	47.74	56.88	67.01	70.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.03%	8.03%	8.03%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	29.43	29.71	29.99
Year 2 PV (M)	33.22	33.85	34.49
Year 3 PV (M)	36.81	37.86	38.94
Year 4 PV (M)	40.21	41.76	43.35
Year 5 PV (M)	43.44	45.54	47.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)	913.93	958.08	1,003.91
Equity Value (M)	1,097.04	1,146.80	1,198.39
Shares Outstanding (M)	37.65	37.65	37.65
Fair Value	$29.14	$30.46	$31.83
Upside / Downside	102.20%	111.37%	120.88%

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Sector

Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener